Third, this is the first time overseas voters can influence a Turkish election in significant numbers. Second, support for Mrs Çiller’s party had crashed in Turkey’s largest cities: it took less than 3.5% of the vote in Istanbul, 5.5% in Ankara and 9% in Izmir. No such dramatic swings are expected this year. Today’s HDP has several advantages over the DYP in 2002, though.įirst, 2002 was a landslide election when voters punished all the mainstream parties, including the DYP. But the arithmetic would have been quite different: this AK Party would not have been able to call on a referendum on its plans to directly elect the president, for example. The AK Party would still have had a large majority – 49 seats, rather than 87 – allowing to comfortably govern alone. Naturally, the parliament elected in 2002 would have looked quite different if a DYP contingent was added to the mix. The HDP could lose everything by an even narrower margin. 158,000 more of them would have created a 65-seat DYP group in parliament. All the DYP needed was liquidity – votes, and votes from anywhere. It was a solid foundation of support around the country. This meant Mrs Çiller was able to pick up single seats from a scattering of small, rural provinces. The DYP also won a decent spread of votes around the country, a key HDP objective for this year.
Western provinces were where the DYP did well in 2002, particularly among conservative voters who were angry at the government but suspicious of the AK Party’s religious tendencies. Like the HDP today, the DYP had a strong regional base to rely on, albeit in a different part of the country. This is the danger facing the pro-Kurdish HDP today. That means that if barely 2000 more people supported it in each of Turkey’s 85 districts, the DYP would have been in parliament with dozens of seats. The DYP under Tansu Çiller got agonisingly close: just 158,000 more votes would have done the trick. This is the plain cruelty of Turkey’s electoral system. But its 3 million votes clocked in at 9.55% – not enough to get it over the threshold. The centre-right True Path Party (DYP) fared better than other mainstream parties, in part because it had been in opposition for five years. It was also a real bloodbath for the parties in the outgoing government: the nationalist MHP and centre-right ANAP took 8.4% and 5.1% respectively, while the centre-left DSP – which had led the coalition – finished the night with a miserable 1.2%. Remember 2002? That was the one that catapulted the fledgling AK Party to power in a landslide election and placed only the CHP in opposition against it. We only need to roll back 13 years for a Turkish election when a party got agonising close to crossing the threshold, but ultimately fell short. Any fewer, and it risks falling short of 10% and winning no seats at all.Īnd it does happen. Those which don't have an accuracy will also be balanced out in some way (ie.The central question of this year’s election is whether the HDP can muster enough votes it needs before it can win any seats.Īs we have previously reported, the party is going need around 4.5 million votes to ensure it crosses the national threshold and enters parliament.
Decrease the accuracy of 60 skills and eraser: this is our proposed alternative to removing them or increasing the recharge time.Remove rarely used pre-eles from OI drops: Shields and 2H Blunts are definitely being removed, however may also consider removing Spears, Javelins, Bows and Crossbows depending on responses.We may consider capping the OP linking rate at 30% - comments regarding this are also welcome. **POLL** Increase linking rate of Sonic, Flash, Lv6 and Accessory Lapis: will be increased to base 2%, giving a link rate of 9% with Lv7 Hammers and 40% with Operator's Exclusive.The changes which are open for discussion include: You are also welcome to suggest alternatives or give a more in-depth opinion than simply "yes" or "no" - just make sure you keep it polite and constructive. Since some of these will have a significant effect on the userbase we have decided to open a poll to gauge what you guys would prefer. Hello Beginning! As promised, we have had our October end of month review and come up with a list of changes.
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